Three days ago the Portland Timbers knocked the Seattle Sounders out of cup contention 5-3 on aggregate. Tonight at 9 pm PST they face Real Salt Lake in the Western Conference Finals; a team that the Timbers have not defeated in 2013.
Caleb Porter’s group was humbled a bit in the final 16 minutes of play Thursday night. After going up 3 goals on Seattle in 47 minutes, the Timbers gave up two in two minutes. They still held on to a 2 goal lead on aggregate, but giving up late goals is never a good sign. On the bright side, no players are going into tonight’s match more injured than they were in the regular season.
Maestro Diego Valeri is still working his way through a lingering adductor strain and Darlington Nagbe was the subject of some hard fouls through the Seattle series. Luckily, both should start tonight against RSL’s strong midfield. I expect the entire Portland lineup to be the same as last match, with Ryan Johnson up top, Wallace on the left, and Nagbe on the right.
The Timbers have four players sitting on yellow cards: Diego Chara, Pa Modou Kah, Rodney Wallace, and Ben Zemanski. One more and they would be suspended for the second leg of this series. Chara is the most important of the four, but substitute Zemanski can’t be sacrificed. He and Kalif Alhassan play different roles and could both be needed as tactical subs against Salt Lake. Kah is the second most important for me; I really don’t want to start Andrew Jean-Baptiste next match. AJB in such a high-pressure game against a high-pressure opponent just screams penalty kick. If the Timbers are leading in the 75th minute I would be fine with using a sub to protect either Chara or Kah. Portland will need all it can get at home in the second leg.
Real Salt Lake comes into this match missing their top goalscorer Alvaro Saborio. He’s out with a strained muscle and in his place will likely be Devon Sandoval. Sandoval has scored just three goals in ten starts. Without Saborio, RSL’s most dangerous players are Javier Morales and Joao Plata. Morales and Plata have punished the Timbers multiple times this year and I think both should start. Plata is a fantastic super-sub, but I think he gets an important early goal off a Morales assist if he makes the 11.
In four matches this year, Portland has lost and drawn twice each against Salt Lake. One loss came in the US Open Cup and another at Rio Tinto Stadium on August 30th. The MLS match in Salt Lake was a 4-2 loss and the scoreboard looks a lot worse than it actually was. Luis Gil and Joao plata each scored in the first 15 minutes due to defensive mistakes. Ben Zemanski picked up a red card in first half stoppage time that opened the Timbers up to two second half goals. I think that Portland has solved a lot of the defensive issues that caused them to give up early goals throughout the season.
Being a homer, I’d rather focus on the 0-0 draw last month where Portland held RSL without a single shot on goal. It might have happened in the fortress of Jeld-Wen Field, but it still shows how far the backline has come. The Great Wall of Gambia, Futty and Kah, are consistently stopping attacks and allowing for Jewsbury to safely roam upfield. Had Wallace started instead of Alhassan I think the Timbers would have won 1-0.
Tonight comes down to three things for Portland: The Great Wall of Gambia, set pieces, and Ricketts versus Rimando. If Futty and Kah can repel RSL attackers and set pieces, then Portland has a great shot at a draw. I think the winner comes down to which keeper and defensive line are more in sync tonight. Rimando and Ricketts are both in form, so I’m giving the edge to the Timbers. After Futty scored last week he should be confident and hungry for more. Defense is the name of the game tonight.
Projected Lineups:
Portland Timbers: Donovan Ricketts; Jack Jewsbury, Futty Danso, Pa Modou Kah, Michael Harrington; Diego Chara, Diego Valeri, Will Johnson; Darlington Nagbe, Ryan Johnson, Rodney Wallace
Real Salt Lake: Nick Rimando; Tony Beltran, Nat Borchers, Chris Schuler, Chris Wingert; Kyle Beckerman; Sebastian Velazquez, Luis Gil; Javier Morales; Devon Sandoval, Robbie Findley
